A social media post from Donald Trump, predicting he will win the 2024 election and that he will then prosecute those whom he claims cheated in the 2020 election. Screenshot, Truth Social, Donald J. Trump post^[14]

Local fraud claims

The past few years have seen significant debate about whether and how to hold Trump, his advisers and the people who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, accountable for their actions.

The organizational infrastructure that supported the #StopTheSteal movement remains largely intact. People who amplified election fraud claims remain in charge of national^[15] and local parties^[16]. And there have even been concerted efforts to put allies of this movement in charge of election administration^[17] in key places.

This movement was not built only from the top down in the White House or Mar-a-Lago. We found that hundreds of local county political party organizations amplified claims that called the 2020 election into question.

According to our analysis of 410 county Republican Parties’ behavior on Facebook from January 2020 to January 2021, these parties and their members questioned the election’s legitimacy through almost 5,000 posts to an audience of more than half a million followers. These posts began in the spring of 2020, with steep increases in the weeks immediately before and following Election Day.

Some posts were tepid, questioning the existence of “funny numbers^[18]” in Michigan or “irregularities^[19]” in Wisconsin. Others were more extreme, calling followers to “fight” to “defend the Constitution^[20]” or warning that “civil war is coming^[21].” Facebook and its conservative bias^[22] that drives higher engagement with right wing content makes it a crucial vehicle for spreading conspiracy theories like these.

Sometimes, local GOP organizations served as a megaphone for Trump and his allies, echoing their claims of fraud to a local audience. These organizations often created their own content, however, giving this national campaign a sense of local urgency.

For example, the Cobb County Republican Party in Georgia amplified false claims made by what they called a local “whistleblower” that Cobb County ballots had been “shredded^[23].”

This claim became part of the national story of election fraud. In fact, Trump referenced these claims of ballot shredding^[24] in his infamous phone call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, when Trump pressured him to “find 11,780 votes.”

Other false claims of election fraud first surfaced at the local level but were amplified nationally as well. False claims included the alleged “lost” flash drive^[25] in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the alleged “17,000 duplicate votes^[26]” in Arizona’s Maricopa County and the alleged “20,000 dead people^[27]” who voted in Pennsylvania.

Many of these^[28] false claims became^[29] part of a national narrative^[30] of election fraud. They illustrate the crucial role that local claims of fraud, amplified by local party leaders, played in the national struggle to overturn the 2020 election.

Not only did these local party leaders play a role in crafting the story of election fraud, they rallied and transported some of the foot soldiers of Jan. 6. Only a fraction^[31] of the thousands of people who heard Trump give a speech on the Ellipse marched to the Capitol; an even smaller group breached its walls. But several local party officials^[32] were among the more than 1,200 people charged with crimes at the Capitol that day.

The rhetoric we saw deployed and amplified from local parties, we argue, helped give permission for this action. County party leaders in North Carolina urged their followers^[33] to do “something historic” and join “Trump’s Army … on the March to DC.” Other county parties chartered buses or supported caravans to transport their followers to the National Mall that day.

Screenshots of two December 2020 Facebook posts, from the Republican Party of Dane County, Wisconsin, on the left, and the Alcona County Republicans from Michigan on the right. Facebook^[34]

From rhetoric to action

In recent years, the presidential political map has become more predictable^[35]. Before voting for president starts, candidates and parties know which states, counties and even precincts are likely to be the most competitive and consequential.

This predictability provides a useful road map for those who would challenge the legitimacy of an election. In 2020, claims of election fraud from Trump and his supporters followed the political map where efforts might be most likely to tip the balance^[36]. Their efforts focused on counties with growing Trump support in states where Trump narrowly lost, such as Georgia and Wisconsin.

The #StopTheSteal movement has had four years to study and even attempt to influence and gain control of election processes^[37] in the most politically consequential places. It appears that Trump and his allies are gearing up for a similar strategy in 2024^[38], once again putting state and county elections and political institutions in the national spotlight.

But 2024 is not 2020. Americans can anticipate and work to counter the same escalation from claims of fraud, which have already begun^[39], that could end in violence directed at political institutions and lack of confidence in the election outcome.

In the weeks leading up to the election, there are warning signs to watch for.

Are local organizations echoing the claims of fraud made by national leaders? Are they targeting specific jurisdictions before any votes are cast? And are they trying to convince supporters that challenging the election is their moral and civic duty? Are they targeting election administration professionals who are charged with counting the votes?

These are the factors that can turn heated political rhetoric into something more menacing.

Authors: Sadie Dempsey, Ph.D. Candidate in Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Read more https://theconversation.com/swing-state-gop-leaders-amplified-election-denial-in-2020-and-may-do-so-again-235823